"300+ yards" ... "I can still get stronger," Adrian Peterson said. "I'm still not there, man." Many think that what AD was referring to is of course his recovery from his December 24th, 2011 injury in Washington. Let me tell you that it is not. Yes, AD's talking about rebuilding his body, where his body might be able to achieve at most about an additional 5% (probably much less than that). We all realize that 5% is the hard ceiling unless some alien being gets involved but what AD is talking about is in reaching for the thin air ... the right stuff.
Today, where AD's overall effectiveness is exploding is in regard to his applied knowledge or in his wisdom. Think back to when he was in his first & 2nd year when he barreled at full speed into the line where the defense just stacked the gaps. Today, although he may not be as fast as he was as a rookie, he is certainly quicker. Quickness is measure of directional change where the power & torque generated in those changes in direction, by his massive body, are absolutely astounding.
To me it is almost tragic observing the amount of time & energy invested by both Adrian Peterson and the entire organization, between themselves, to reach out for that additional 5%, acting like the pilots of yesteryear as they perceived the artificial sound barrier as being some sort of hard & fast limit or constraint. By historical evidence & statistics alone, or the MONEY BALL effect if you will, Adrian Peterson can be made to achieve 73% more power, strength, speed, quickness & agility ... and that is without changing one fiber in his body beyond where it is today. Again, that is Adrian Peterson with 1.73 times his super human abilities ... now imagine that! This is possible because these measurement are always made against the defense that he is facing, where the magic formula is:
Maybe you don't have the math skills, so allow me to lay it out in clearer detail for you:
When X = 1, Adrian Petersons Skills Sets factor is at 1.005 or 0.5% greater. Not much, I know.
When X = 5, Adrian Peterson Skill Sets factor is at 1.1701 or 17.01% greater.
When X = 10, Adrian Peterson Skill Sets factor is at 1.4232 or 42.32% greater.
When X = 15, Adrian Peterson Skill Sets factor is at 1.7310 or 73.10% greater.
So, what is the factor X? The factor X is the number of Toby Gerhart touches in the first half, regardless of whether they are passes or are runs, however they must occur in the first half. You don't even have to ask why this is true because you already know the answer (The A-FRAME Mike Alstott). That's a pretty effective bullet to have in ones pocket.
So when Adrian Peterson makes the statement that it is very possible to break that 300 yard mark, he is in fact not joking. He senses it clearly ... he's just too close to it to be able to achieve it. In other words, you cannot see the forest through the trees. It is almost 100% certain that AD can accomplish this feat but it cannot happen using our organizations present mindset as directed under Sir Zygmunt. Look back to when Adrian Peterson set the record versus the San Diego Chargers or even in what he did versus the Chicago Bears, in Chicago mind you, in that same year. Now think back, How many yards did AD have in the first half?
Did you happen to notice the effectiveness of Adrian Peterson at the start of the season, when we were protecting him in the beginning of the year by using Toby Gerhart early & often in the first half? It was only after we strayed away from that formula that we started to lose games.
Here's a good question. It is first down in the first quarter. Adrian Peterson is in the backfield. Are we going to run the ball, pass the ball, or do you have absolutely no idea what we are going to do? If you answered we are going the run the ball with AD, you'd be correct way too often. Tell me, what commander has been known for attacking the strength of any army (defense)? Do they teach that to commanders? No! They teach commanders to attack the weakened flank and then weaken the opponent further on each successive attack. Now consider putting Toby Gerhart in the backfield. If you now answered that same question that you'd have no idea what the Vikings were now going to do, then you'd understand why Toby has the ability to pick up 5 yards per touch on average. Doing so forces the hand of our offense to perform utilizing it's every tool. How many tools did Ponder use yesterday absent the healing Percy Harvin? How effective was that?
Did you also notice maybe the most important factor in the above formula? As the number of touches for Toby Gerhart increased, the defense in response became unhinged. They never knew when we were going to unleash Adrian Peterson or in how we were going to do it. In other words, as the effectiveness of the defense was continually waning they knew that AD could be unleashed upon them at any time. This factor alone should put a fire under Ponder's hind quarters to succeed at 1st down efficiency, especially early in the contest, as the more early touches for Gerhart, the more powerful & effective Peterson becomes..
So you're thinking, if we do not use AD in the first half, which is not what the formula states, then we maybe giving up the opportunity at an early home run. Yes, that is true but it is not statistically sound as historically these home runs far & away occur in the 2nd half. Don't believe me ... look at the career of Emmitt Smith and the approach of the Dallas Cowboys. How did we miss that?
A more important argument is that running backs become more effective the more carries that they have. This might be true for a running back in college or a rookie in the NFL but it is not true for Adrian Peterson or any experienced running back. Allow me to explain how backward this thinking is by observing the natural world. When we watch a nature show, we are told that the predators cull the herds by observing the herd, searching for the weakest to cull to single out. Unfortunately, it's not the perspective of the guy rolling the camera that's important, what is important is the perspective of the animals. So this statement is not true and is a lazy observation stated by the narrator. In fact, what actually happens is something very different. It is the herd that senses the injury to one of their own, where the herd culls that weakened animal from the group. Now apply that thinking to football. The herd will not allow the injured animal to return to their group ... the group singles out that injured animal. What the predator does on the other hand is receive easy pickings. This is the same backward analogy as to how we perceive ball carriers. The statement is self serving as it serves the ball carrier but it is quite short sighted in regard to the team. Bill Walsh understood this clearly whereas this organization always falls into the trap of listening to words. The truth is that running backs do not get stronger with more carries ... it's that defenses that get weaker or depleated as they are pounded by Toby Gerhart and this offensive machines meat wagon.
So, everyone's now feeling quite giddy going into the bye after dispatching Detroit into our rear view mirror, thinking how well Ponder did yesterday and how awesome it is to have Adrian Peterson on our team, not wanting to look forward. Not many are looking forward into the Teeth of the Black & Blue Division seeing @ Chicago, @ Green Bay, Chicago, @ St. Louis, @ Houston, then Green Bay thinking that this team is going to get beaten so badly that sticking our collective heads in the sand appears to be a good idea. Well if Zygi Wilf is made to pay attention, if we utilize the same tired old approach that generated our recent losses, history indicates that the same result will most certainly happen. In reality, just the opposite result is achievable, especially by applying the above formula, because regardless of weather conditions, which were a major factor in last nights contest in Chicago ... the run game is what will be the prevailing boss card. Where later, the crowd noise just might be a factor on the teams that we've already smashed. Get the picture! Neither Chicago nor Green Bay are prepared for this devastation as it has never been about who you play ... it has always been about when & where you play them.
Now just for one moment, try to imagine just how incredibly good this team would be under the helm of Joe Webb as it has been argued that Christian Ponder is this teams weakest link. It boggles the mind. More on that later.
Remember that it is a historic moment that Sir Zygmunt is now staring right in the face.
The Viking Ghost Writer
Date: November 12, 2012